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Coronavirus, If China sneezes, Latin America catches a cold

On January 15, 2020, Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare reported a case imported from a new 2019 coronavirus, confirmed in the laboratory (2019-nCoV), from Wuhuan, Hubei Province, China.

 

"The coronavirus outbreak has the potential to generate a greater perception of risk in the global financial markets, causing losses in the capital market and changes in investment positions, which can lead the Mexican peso to quote again above 19 pesos per dollar, "said Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base.

Investors rushed Friday to take refuge in gold, the yen and the Swiss franc, punishing commodities and emerging market assets, including major currencies in the region, at a time when some analysts again warn of an "exuberance irrational "in world markets.

In Mexico, investors will be attentive to the advanced economic growth figures that will be known on Thursday and that could confirm a stagnation, and on the same day they will look sideways at the same data for the United States.

The attention in Argentina, where the official peso remains controlled but the implicit or counted with liquidation has reached 84 units per dollar, will be put in the meetings of the Minister of Economy, Martin Guzman, with analysts, investors and entrepreneurs in New York, and his meeting with the head of the mission for the country of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in times of uncertainty about how sovereign debt will be paid.

In Chile, where the peso has been losing ground since the beginning of the year, the eyes will be on the monetary policy committee of the Central Bank, which meets on Wednesday. No changes in the reference interest rate are expected, but there are signs that it could happen with an economy mired in uncertainty due to political instability.

The expectations for Colombia are the same, without changes in the interest rate, but with a more comfortable central bank with inflation that is still within its objectives.

In Brazil, the economic scenario is more optimistic, but the currency has weakened in line with the decline in other emerging market currencies.

"The weakness of the real this month partly cuts profits for December and last year, it is unlikely that we will see the currency fluctuate below 4 (per dollar) or above 4.40," said Felipe Pellegrino , Treasury manager of Travelex Bank.

In Peru, the results of peculiar legislative elections will set the tone for the markets, which are anxious to find a way out of the political crisis opened by clashes between Congress and the executive branch.

The coronavirus, which has already left at least 81 dead in China and with cases in the United States and Europe, has the potential to complicate economies that are recovering and with less auspicious forecasts than just a few months ago.

The virus outbreak has the potential to affect foreign trade and demand for raw materials from the Asian giant, the largest trading partner in Latin America.

Financial analysts say that this new death and absence of improvements to prevent its potential spread is what is causing nervousness in Asian markets, this nervousness seems to extend to European markets and future Americans. In Europe there is no index that is free of the fall, while oil corrects about 2% in the futures market.

In the event that Coronavirus arrives in Mexico and turns on contagion alerts nationwide, the tourism sector would be the main affected, since the flow of visitors would be reduced to 15% and an economic impact of up to 37 million dollars would be had ( mmdd), figures similar to those reported in 2009 with the presence of the H1N1 influenza virus, estimated specialists consulted for 24 hours.

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